EU adrift amid US election uncertainty

What’s driving the day in Brussels.
By EDDY WAX
with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH
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GOOD THURSDAY MORNING. This is Eddy Wax — a Brit who has now been invited to pick up his Belgian identity card. And there was me thinking I didn’t have a stake in any of this EU stuff!
EU QUIBBLES AS CHINA AND RUSSIA STEP UP: France has no government, Germany’s coalition is fighting itself, Giorgia Meloni’s Italy is an outcast on the EU stage, and the looming U.S. election could rip Europe’s protective blanket away. One might be relieved, then, that the EU got its own European Parliament election out of the way more than two months ago.
Just kidding! Brussels is still months away from kicking off its new five-year legislative cycle, as the next team of commissioners won’t be approved by MEPs and voted on as a package until many more hurdles are cleared. The EU’s once-in-five years transition takes so long, you might as well write off 2024 entirely.
Taking advantage: “It’s a perfect moment if you wanted to do something sort of difficult for the West,” said Guntram Wolff, senior fellow at the Bruegel think tank. Like what? Wolff raised the prospect of Chinese escalation around Taiwan as one example. “The real question is whether China, which has done lots of military exercises around Taiwan, will go one step further and start something that resembles more of a direct attack on some critical infrastructure,” the academic said. This would fully occupy Washington, leaving Europe exposed to deal with Russia more or less alone.
“Geopolitical Commission” — on holiday: This summer is making the EU’s sleepy holiday modus operandi and cumbersome institutional transition look increasingly anachronistic. While Brussels has wound down for the past month, the world, er, hasn’t. 
At ease? For one thing, the bloody wars raging between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East are just one misstep away from spiraling. But for much of this year, the corridors of power in Brussels have been populated — if at all — by presidents-elect, commissioners-in-waiting, soon-to-be ex-officials and MEPs packing boxes. It’s more of a waiting room than a powerhouse over here.
In space no one can hear you scream at Orbán: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exploited the leadership vacuum when he launched his blistering “peace mission” to Russia, China and the States. That eminently foreseeable move, trading on the cachet of his bog-standard Council presidency role, humiliated the EU.
The one constant? Ursula von der Leyen. The Commission president is back at work, shovel quite literally in hand, and has been hitting the phones with EU leaders to discuss their desired portfolios (more on that below).
No woman, no commissioner: But von der Leyen’s authority is being challenged by governments who’ve defied her request for each to provide two candidates — including a woman — as their commissioner nominees. And she faces the prospect of leading a College whose most powerful members could be those who’ve directly rebuked her in the past year: Teresa Ribera, who said she’d made huge mistakes on climate, and Thierry Breton, who attacked her support inside her center-right family during the EU election campaign.
VDL’s dilemma: “She is weaker at the moment than once the Commission is fully appointed because at the moment member states have some leverage over her,” said Wolff, suggesting this was more a product of the EU’s transition procedure than an indictment of von der Leyen herself. The German has been a “pretty strong leader,” but is in a difficult position, he said.
**Save the date! On September 25, POLITICO will host the event “Europe’s Digital Future: Navigating the Path of Connectivity and Innovation” to discuss the role of connectivity and innovation in the context of the ongoing digital transformation. Register today!**
BEIJING’S NO. 2 MEETS RUSSIA’S NO. 1: While Brussels is hitting the beaches, Beijing and Moscow are doing a different kind of travel. Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted China’s Premier Li Qiang on Wednesday, with the duo boasting of their countries’ increasingly close trade ties (Western warnings notwithstanding), Stuart Lau writes in to report.
Friends with benefits: “Our trade relations are not only developing but also flourishing, thanks in part to the efforts of our Chinese friends,” Putin said. Li had a similar message: “A stable development of China-Russia relations … is conducive to regional and international peace, stability and prosperity.”
What’s in a word? Per the Kremlin’s English translation of Li’s words, the Chinese No. 2 spoke to Putin “as your close friend and ally,” although the Russian version doesn’t use that word and nor does Beijing’s readout — its official stance is that the China-Russia relationship “goes beyond” Cold War-style alliances.
WARNING TO FRANCE: WATCH OUT FOR CHINA MEDDLING IN NEW CALEDONIA. Paris needs to pay attention to potential Chinese interference in New Caledonia, the French Pacific territory that endured a violent uprising earlier this year, according to a new report by Anne-Marie Brady for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, previewed by Stuart.
Keeping the waterway safe: French military assets “are one of the factors standing in the way of China changing the power balance in the Indo-Pacific, and in the South Pacific more specifically,” according to Brady. “If France were to lose any of its Pacific territories, and access to the vast maritime area they provide, its global influence and status would decline significantly. That situation would suit the interests of China and Russia.”
What Beijing wants: New Caledonia has rich reserves of nickel — a core mineral for making electric vehicle batteries. While Paris blocked a Chinese takeover bid for a nickel mine there in 2019, Beijing has prevailed: By 2022, 62.3 percent of all New Caledonian exports (which are mainly minerals) went to China.
Paris to blame: One problem, according to Brady, is the double standard employed by Paris, which on the one hand wants New Caledonia to resist China’s advances, but on the other is itself expanding trade with Beijing. That’s “caused confusion as well as suspicion in some circles in New Caledonia,” she writes.
Silver lining: Brady observed that New Caledonian politicians, including those who support independence, are aware of China’s ambition, and are keen to avoid the client-state relationship Beijing has built with fellow Pacific island state Vanuatu. Still, she warns, Beijing’s “efforts targeted at New Caledonia have become more secretive, gone local, and gone offshore.” Read Stuart’s story here.
CHINA’S WRATH: Beijing launched an anti-subsidy investigation into imports of EU dairy on Wednesday, the latest salvo in an escalating tit-for-trade trade war between Brussels and Beijing.
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: A host of A-listers took to the stage at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, with former U.S. President Bill Clinton hitting hard at Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey delivering a rebuke to his running mate JD Vance’s “childless cat lady” comments. But the night truly belonged to Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’ pick for VP. Our Stateside colleague Zach Montellaro has written in with this dispatch …
Walz to Walz coverage: Sixteen days ago, Tim Walz was a genial, little-known governor of the Midwestern state of Minnesota. Now he’s one incredibly contentious election away from becoming America’s vice president.
Coach Walz: Walz used his set-piece speech to introduce himself to Americans as a camo-hat wearin’, gun-totin’ former teacher, football coach and veteran ready to step up. “You might not know it, but I haven’t given a lot of big speeches like this. But I have given a lot of pep talks,” said Walz. “It’s the fourth quarter. We’re down a field goal. But we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball.”
Walz appeal: Walz’s job is to round out the corners of Californian Harris, especially among rural voters and white men. The hope among Democrats is that he can also serve as an attack dog, deploying his folksiness to define their Republican rivals as “weird.”
Best-case scenario for Democrats: Walz is Bill Clinton 2.0. The former president loaded his own speech up with neighborliness and zingers at Trump’s expense on Wednesday. Some Democrats, as POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin chronicled, want Clinton back on the trail to connect with the “independents, guys in [veterans’] halls, firemen,” in the words of New York Governor Kathy Hochul. Failing that, the party could do a lot worse than a guy whose former football players helped introduce him to America at the convention Wednesday night.
The early reviews: A good chunk of Americans don’t know much about either VP candidate, per an AP-NORC survey released Wednesday. But of those who have an opinion, about one-third have a favorable view of Walz, with just about a quarter saying the same for Vance. That’s one reason Republicans have been trying to knock Walz down a peg, casting him as a radical progressive cosplaying in flannel, and going after his military service. (Ben Kesling had a good explainer in POLITICO Magazine about the realities of Walz’s 24 years in the National Guard.)
Reality check: Few vote for a president based on the attacks on — or accolades received by — their No. 2. “Most people, when they cast their ballots, they’re basing it based on who the presidential nominee is,” as Vance himself said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” earlier this month. “It’s just straightforward political reality.”
NOW HEAR THIS: Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth says she expects President Joe Biden to have a resurgence now that he’s unburdened from electioneering. He’s “energetic and focused on what needs to be done next,” Duckworth told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy in a conversation at the CNN-POLITICO Grill for the Power Play podcast. “I really see him moving into a time period where he’s going to be very much like Jimmy Carter, a past president who does so much more for the country.” Listen here.
BUCHAREST’S PICK IMMINENT: We should know more about Romania’s nominee for the European Commission after a meeting today between Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and Ursula von der Leyen. Two people with knowledge of the matter told Playbook Social Democrat MEP Victor Negrescu is still the favorite. Another name in the mix is Labor Minister Simona Bucura-Oprescu — assuming Romania bucks the trend and also nominates a woman.
AUSTRIA WANTS TO GET COMPETITIVE: Vienna wants a portfolio that involves “the strengthening of the EU’s competitiveness,” Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s office told Playbook. Its candidate is Finance Minister Magnus Brunner — my colleague Giovanna Faggionato profiled him in this great piece as a steady-handed “sportsman” who loves tennis.
HOW TO READ ATHENS’ PICK: Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ choice of commissioner signals a rightward shift, Nektaria Stamouli writes. Apostolos Tzitzikostas — a hardliner on national identity — was nominated to strengthen the PM’s appeal to conservative voters amid concerns over his party’s recent electoral performance.
SÍKELA’S CZECH-LIST: Czech Trade Minister Jozef Síkela officially became his country’s nominee for commissioner Wednesday, and outlined a vast range of topics he’s interested in, ranging from tech to climate to energy policies.
LITHUANIA FLOATS RUSSIA HAWK: Lithuania nominated Andrius Kubilius as its European commissioner (pending formal approval from President Gitanas Nausėda and the parliament), my colleague Ketrin Jochecová reports. Earlier this year, Kubilius said he’d dreamed about the EU creating a “special commissioner on sanctions.”
BELGIUM’S BUDGET CRISIS LOOMS: Belgium’s coalition talks are at risk of collapse over a budget row. Today is crunch time for the lead negotiator, who must deliver a crucial report to the king, POLITICO’s Pieter Haeck reports. Coalition talks went on until just before 2 a.m. overnight and will resume later today.
HUNGARIAN VISA SCHEME UPDATE: Budapest’s response to the EU’s concerns that its decision to expand a work visa scheme to Russians and Belarusians presents security risks for the rest of the Schengen zone? Don’t worry about it! In a letter published Wednesday, Hungarian Interior Minister Sándor Pintér said security screenings will take place and the country will stick to EU law.
LIBERALS SLAM BULGARIA’S ANTI-LGBTQ+ LAW: The Renew Europe group of MEPs has joined the small number of EU voices strongly condemning a new Bulgarian law banning so-called LGBTQ+ propaganda in schools. “This law contravenes fundamental rights and freedoms recognised by international law,” the group said on X, calling for a Commission investigation. (Renew’s emailed statement, sent by accident, was somewhat less impactful — “Content goes here,” it read.)
When no content is better: The Left group put out a statement on X calling for the Bulgarian law to be repealed … by Romania.
DOUBLE CONGRATS: In Wednesday’s Playbook we suggested Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau hadn’t congratulated von der Leyen on her election until this week, when the pair spoke on the phone. In fact, he’d posted on X on July 18, the day of the vote in Parliament.
— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu at 11 a.m. Watch.
— EU High Representative Josep Borrell is in Santander, Spain, where he will moderate a talk on “Europe between two wars — EU and the crisis in the Middle East” at “Quo Vadis Europe?” … Commissioner General of UNRWA Philippe Lazzarini will attend.
WEATHER: High of 24C, sunny.
COMEDY AND DANCE: The English-speaking comedy event Insecure & Dangereux is running a dance party/show featuring female and non-binary LGBTQ+ comedians. Tonight at 8:30 p.m. at Les Grand Carmes.
BIRTHDAYS: MEP Pascal Canfin; former MEPs Demetris Papadakis and Igor Šoltes; Brunswick’s Patrick Matthews; European Jewish Public Affairs’ Levi Matusof; Manuela Teixeira Pinto, Portugal’s deputy permanent representative to the EU; former European Commissioner Julian King.
THANKS TO: Stuart Lau, Jacopo Barigazzi, Playbook editor Alex Spence, Playbook reporter Šejla Ahmatović and producer Catherine Bouris.
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